Wednesday, February 3, 2021

lse update stern espinosa

uk online libraries - lse; royal society... 

along the academic road of stern and the un road of espinosa to cop26 glasow from cancun 2010, paris 2015

these are rough notes- we expect to find official transcript soon

srern says patricia espinosa led cancun cop26 2010 and major at paros cop 2015

why is cop26 vital

2015 almost all nations declare paris stand united most collective threat to future- greatest multilaterlal monment of 21st c

but in 5 years since agreement - collective way has been under attack when most needed

pandemic changed things

climate emergency expoennentially worsening

in 2020 temperatures in arctic 3 degrees above normal

weather emergency accompanies loss of life, property, help

likelihood of challenge tripled if your finger lands on a poor place

geo-isolation not solution to natures game-rules-  climate or covid

is espinosa talking out of un?

one of most impacted are the quarter of all nations- small islands

nations likely to recover covid likely leap forward better on climate and on education/youth ;ivelihoodsas sdg generation pyp pop pcp -shelf- units

20201 needs to be transforation year - road to and from cop26 glasow now with italy- greatest test of climate agreements- success factors for planet, sharing it now, inheiriting it

success 1-4

1 prmises made must be kept eg 10 year promises made by cancun- eg rich nations promised mobilise100 bn dollars for poorer nations climate adaption

2 wrap up negotiations from 2015 and implement- clock rn out -artcicle 6 emissions markets crosscutting all ministries not just environment ministries inform all policy making innternational national loca

3 time to raise ambitions- not just mitigation - but widespread resilienc4

4 leave no voice or solution behinnd - intgrated mapping - everyone role to play -units role in forward adapting knowhow, certifications

countries must negotite like never before

great plans announced by china jinping japan suga korea  moon -phillippines no new coal plants -eu pledge 55% greenhouse emissions compared 1990 ; uk new annoucemnent

us rejoin paris

"ndc" by nation - where are they collated side by side

climatevambition - 3 pillarsmitigation adaptation finance - dec 2020rivate sector 450 cities 1400 businees 570 universities race to zero alliance- these actors 25% emissions 50% gdp

international energ agency

green energy

electric cars




japan engineers route

2019 espinosa stage 3 cancer

impossible is not the answer- what people want i: here is how

climate as great human project green clean healths safe prosperous for all generations

exec secreatry unftriple c - 

stern grantham institute and tsinghua co-chairs global alliance of universitirs- university coalition

===========questions from stern

1 how do negotiate virtually- how explain not zero-sum; ambition 1.5 and reality- what are virtual problems? espinosa - 2021 year of transformational diplomacy - virtual blended real contact; epideic has made zoom dialogues normal; muchg more can be done virtually than just traveling; reality has gone ahead of our frameworks of policy making- real negotiations git behind in 2020- artcixle 6 carbon markets issue- transpsreny and adaptation in practice- all postponed at un level- need to catch up bytime we get to glasgow

hoping noveber glasgow will be personal-formal

- take account time zones

support colleagues with weak connectivity

alok sharma working hard to get everyinethere physically

======= climate finance

question 2 from stern - we gotv100 bnin place copenhagen-cancun- promisedby 2020- canwe make this real before cop26- adaptation finance

a finance imporatnt ekemnt to build truatamong partners

100 bn failure caused erosion of trust

== 12 trillion dollars suddenly mobilised so why wasnt 100 bn come together over decdae

cf 300 trillion dollar western pension fund

of course 2010 mobilising 100 billion not just public funs -

oecdreport 2018 suggests 80 billion ay have been mobilised- with covid probably not increased sincethen

- importer developed countries citizens serving own purpose

if eu had best implemtation of green- nehatively effected if dev world has no netzero pathway

of course we need trillins not 100 bm


recent un/grantham report within sight-- looks at institutios interqctions

fimance wint be solved within climate process- indeed finance ministers doht attend cop26;; need to briedge finncial and climate experts

audience questions

jack palmer white lse alumn climate and biodiversity stotry

mexico lse student - sunation impacts eg cities

3 carbon pricing

espinosa answers

very imporatn dual ijnnovation agenda climate-biodiversity; the two are win-wins ; example in ocean acidification provoking loss marine ecosystems- ipcc corals tragedy; corals host endangered species

secretriat biodiversity- work in implementing paris aggrement needs better synsergies the 3 big conventions climate biodiversity, desertification

regarding subnational- citirs aboslyely critical- 75% emissions in cities; 30% agriculture and infra

coalition cities =c40 today larger number of associated cities

also city and region -eg state clubs -platforms

-shes not mentuoning ai earth

==regarding carbon markets

hopeful we can negotiate this - need instrument finance nost vulnerable countries

bot carbon marlets not substitution for emission reduction to netzero


one more question -philip hoxall

is 2050/60 soon enough?

asof 31 dec 75 countries submittedf plans waiting from 196 countries

will update report in spring ndc's

i hope countries will completethis so we get back to cop26 road

far from 1.5 degrees; far from 2050

started secreatrial position 3 years ago

lets stay optimistic netzero language- netzero by and for all

importance unfccc coordinating ambition

this decade will be decisive

-last wordsespinosa- dont give up it is possible - all aboard - be optimistic

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